The four volumes can be accessed via these links:

]]>- May 7, 2018 – Application of Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR2016) in Urban Areas Workshop
- May 16, 2018 – Australia Rainfall and Runoff (ARR2016) breakfast seminar
- July 19 and 20, 2018 – Australian Rainfall and Runoff Workshop. This workshop is also being held in other cities.

As I learn things about ARR2016 I’m adding pages here.

]]>I’ve extracted part of the task view here but please also check the original. Acknowledgements to Gavin Simpson.

- Package HydroMe estimates the parameters in infiltration and water retention models by curve-fitting method.
- hydroTSM is a package for management, analysis, interpolation and plotting of time series used in hydrology and related environmental sciences.
- hydroGOF is a package implementing both statistical and graphical goodness-of-fit measures between observed and simulated values, mainly oriented to be used during the calibration, validation, and application of hydrological/environmental models. Related packages are tiger, which allows temporally resolved groups of typical differences (errors) between two time series to be determined and visualized, and qualV which provides quantitative and qualitative criteria to compare models with data and to measure similarity of patterns
- hydroPSO is a model-independent global optimization tool for calibration of environmental and other real-world models that need to be executed from the system console.hydroPSO implements a state-of-the-art PSO (SPSO-2011 and SPSO-2007 capable), with several fine-tuning options. The package is parallel-capable, to alleviate the computational burden of complex models.
- EcoHydRology provides a flexible foundation for scientists, engineers, and policy makers to base teaching exercises as well as for more applied use to model complex eco-hydrological interactions.
- topmodel is a set of hydrological functions including an R implementation of the hydrological model TOPMODEL, which is based on the 1995 FORTRAN version by Keith Beven. New functionality is being developed as part of the RHydro package on R-Forge.
- dynatopmodel is a native R implementation and enhancement of the Dynamic TOPMODEL, Beven and Freers’ (2001) extension to the semi-distributed hydrological model TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979).
- wasim provides tools for data processing and visualisation of results of the hydrological model WASIM-ETH
- The nsRFA package provides collection of statistical tools for objective (non-supervised) applications of the Regional Frequency Analysis methods in hydrology.
- The boussinesq package is a collection of functions implementing the one-dimensional Boussinesq Equation (ground-water).
- rtop is a package for geostatistical interpolation of data with irregular spatial support such as runoff related data or data from administrative units.

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Lets look at monthly discharges in seven streams from the Bass River, near Phillip Island, around to the Werribee River.

Flow in the Bass River at Glen Forbes South is strongly seasonal. The graph below shows the flow volume in each month. The horizontal lines are the monthly averages with vertical lines representing volumes for each month as recorded in the years 2000 to 2015.

As we track west, winter flows become less pronounced; see the discharges for the Bunyip River below.

There is a small seasonal signal in Eumemmerring Creek (near Dandenong), but in the streams in urbanised catchments (from east to west – Gardiners, Merri and Kororoit) there is no evidence of seasonality. For these streams, the high flow months are November and February. This is partly driven by some unusually large events, for example, the flood of Feb 2005 stands out on these figures.

For the highly regulated Werribee River, average monthly volumes are higher in summer and spring. The small number of large vertical spikes show this pattern is influenced by a few rare events.

Its difficult to tease out the cause of the differences in seasonality as these streams are affected by gradients in urbanisation, climate, and regulation. Certainly, urbanisation has a strong influence. The impervious surfaces in urban areas will produce runoff all year round; they aren’t influenced by the seasonal wetting and drying that occurs in the rural catchments.

And the consequences? We know that fish, for example, respond to seasonal flow changes to migrate and spawn. But changes in seasonality are probably only a small influence in comparison with the large number of factors affecting the ecology of these streams.

]]>The general equation for flood quantile estimation (from Chow, 1951) is:

(1)

Where is the frequency factor that depends on the distribution of the flood data and the probability of interest, and are the mean and standard deviation.

The classical frequency factor for the log-normal distribution is:

(2)

Where, is a standard normal deviate and is the coefficient of variation . The standard normal deviate can be calculated, for example, using the `qnorm`

function in R. So for the 100-year flood, exceedance probability = 1/100, .

An R function to calculate this log-normal frequency factor is:

# Frequency factor for the log-normal distribution # m - mean # s - standard deviation # p - exceedance probability FF_LogNormal <- function(m, s, p) { cv <- s/m z <- qnorm(1 - p) (1/cv) * (exp(sqrt(log(1 + cv^2)) * z - 0.5 * log(1 + cv^2)) - 1) }

Kite (2004) provides an example we can use for testing.

Annual maximum discharges of the Saint John River at Fort Kent, New Brunswick for the 37 years from 1927 to 1963 have a mean of 81,000 cfs and a standard deviation of 22,800. Estimate the 100-year flood.

As, calculated below, Q100 = 148,000 cfs

m <- 81000 s <- 22800 p <- 0.01 Kt <- FF_LogNormal(81000, 22800, p) #2.943 (Q100 <- m + Kt * s) #[1] 148221.3

If flood data are log-normally distributed, that means the logarithms of the flood data are normally distributed. This suggests there are two ways of calculating the flood quantiles. We can use the data as-is along with the log-normal frequency factor (as in the above example), or take the logs of the data and use the frequency factor from the normal distribution.

Continuing with the example from Kite. The mean and standard deviation of the logarithms of the 37 events from the Saint John River are 11.263 and 0.284 (in cfs units).

The frequency factor for the 100-year flood, based on the normal distribution, will be 2.326 so the 100-year flood estimate is 150,800 cfs. Similar to the previous example but not exactly the same.

m.log <- 11.263 s.log <- 0.284 Kt <- qnorm(1 - 0.01) #2.326348 (Q100 <- exp(m.log + Kt*s.log)) #[1] 150795.9

Lets repeat this analysis using some Australian data. An annual flood series for the Hunter River at Singleton is available here.

The two estimates for the 100-year flood are 10,500 cumec using data as-is and 13,800 cumec when calculating in the log domain.

# Hunter River at Singleton library(repmis) my.url <- 'https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10963448/Singleton.csv' singleton <- source_data(my.url) str(singleton) m <- mean(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`) # 1401.7 s <- sd(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`) # 2312.9 Kt <- FF_LogNormal(m, s, 0.01) # 3.917 (Q100 <- m + Kt * s) # 10460.5 m.log <- mean(log(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`)) # 6.425 s.log <- sd(log(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`)) # 1.336 Kt <- qnorm(1 - 0.01) # 2.326 (Q100 <- exp(m.log + Kt*s.log)) # 13818.9

Kuczera (1999) derives a frequency factor for the log-normal distribution which takes account of the uncertainty in the parameters – the mean and standard deviation. These parameters must be estimated from the flood data. Assuming nothing is known about these parameters other that what we learn from the flood measurements (i.e. the Bayesian prior is noninformative), the frequency factor is:

Using this frequency factor will result in a more conservative estimate of flood quantiles. As the sample size increases the the Bayesian frequency factor will approach the frequency factor based on the normal distribution.

An R function to calculate this Bayesian log-normal frequency factor is:

# Frequency factor for the log-normal distribution # n - number of data points # p - exceedance probability FF_LogNormal_Bayes <- function(n, p) { qt( 1-p, n-1) * sqrt(1 + 1/n) }

Calculate the Bayesian estimate for the 100-year flood quantile using the data for the Hunter River at Singleton.

Calculations are below. The estimate is 17,350 cumecs.

library(repmis) my.url <- 'https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10963448/Singleton.csv' singleton <- source_data(my.url) m.log <- mean(log(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`)) # 6.425 s.log <- sd(log(singleton$`Peak (cumec)`)) # 1.336 Kt <- FF_LogNormal_Bayes(nrow(singleton), 0.01) # 2.4966 (Q100 <- exp(m.log + Kt*s.log)) # 17348

So we have three flood quantile estimators for log-normally distributed data:

- Take logs and use the frequency factor from the normal distribution
- Use data as-as and calculate the frequency factor using equation 2.
- Take logs and use the Bayesian frequency factor.

If the data set is large, all the results are the same.

set.seed(2016) my.flood <- rlnorm(1e6, 6, 1) # generate 1 flood values from a log-normal distribution. # True value exp(6 + 1*qnorm(1 - 0.01)) # 4131.302 # Direct calculation of quantile quantile(my.flood, probs = 0.99, type = 8 ) # 4114.213 # Taking logs and using normal distribution frequency factor Q100.log <- mean(log(my.flood)) + sd(log(my.flood))*qnorm(1 - 0.01) exp(Q100.log) # 4130.316 # Use frequency factor from equation 2 Q100 <- mean(my.flood) + sd(my.flood) * FF_LogNormal(mean(my.flood), sd(my.flood), 0.01) Q100 # 4127.146 # Bayes frequency factor Q100.Bayes <- mean(log(my.flood)) + sd(log(my.flood))*FF_LogNormal_Bayes(length(my.flood), 0.01) exp(Q100.Bayes) #4130.336

For small datasets, the estimates vary substantially.

First, let’s make a function that simulations 30 years of log-normal flood peaks and calculates the 100-year quantiles.

Test_f <- function(i, p) { # i = dummy variable so the function can be included in a loop # p = exceedance probability my.flood <- rlnorm(30, 6, 1) # Generate 30 years of flood data Q100.normal <- mean(log(my.flood)) + sd(log(my.flood))*qnorm(1 - p) Q100.eq2 <- mean(my.flood) + sd(my.flood) * FF_LogNormal(mean(my.flood), sd(my.flood), p) Q100.Bayes <- mean(log(my.flood)) + sd(log(my.flood))*FF_LogNormal_Bayes(length(my.flood), p) data.frame(Q100.normal = exp(Q100.normal), Q100.eq2 = Q100.eq2, Q100.Bayes = exp(Q100.Bayes)) }

Now, we’ll call this multiple times and compare the average quantiles for the three methods with the true quantile.

set.seed(5) out <- lapply(1:10000, Test_f, p = 0.01) out.df <- do.call(rbind, out) colMeans(out.df) Q100.normal Q100.eq2 Q100.Bayes 4334.727 3678.353 5204.641 # True quantile 4131

So, for for this data set, on average, the quantile based on taking the logs and using the frequency factor from the normal distribution is about right. The quantile based on equation 2 is too low, and the quantile using the Bayesian frequency factor is too high.

In another post, we’ll look at quantifying the uncertainty in quantile estimates.

Kite, G. W. (2004) Frequency and risk analysis in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, LLC.

]]>

where:

change in catchment storage

precipitation

imported water

actual evaportranspiration

stormwater runoff

wastewater discharge

Mitchell et al., (2003) provides data on the water balance for Curtin, ACT for 1979 to 1996. The water balance for the average, wettest and driest years are shown in the table below.

When presenting financial statements, a common approach is to use a waterfall chart which shows how the components of a financial balance contribute to an overall result. Here I’ve used a waterfall chart to show the water balance for Curtin for the driest and wettest year as reported by Mitchell et al., (2003).

Does this approach to visualising a water balance help understanding? A few things stand out:

- In the driest year, more water was input from the mains than from rainfall
- In the driest year, actual evapotranspiration was larger than rainfall and mains inputs.
- Evapotranspiration and stormwater change with climate, with large variation between the wet and dry years. Wastewater doesn’t change all that much.
- Precipitation is highly variable, ranging from 247 mm to 914 mm.

There is a guide to making a waterfall chart in excel here. The R code to produce the graphs shown in this blog is available as a gist, which draws on this blog.

Mitchell, V. G., T. A. McMahon and R. G. Mein (2003) Components of the Total Water Balance of an Urban Catchment. *Environmental Management ***32**(6): 735-746. (link)

The following steps can be used to extract and convert the data into a useable format.

1. Download and save rating table. Click the button shown to get the rating table as a text file.

2. Re-format the data to create columns of levels and flows. You’ll need to use your favourite tool for this munging step. An example using R is available as a gist.

3. Plot and compare with the online version

4. Save as a csv file for further use.

R code is available here.

Related posts:

]]>Definitions:

- EY – Number of exceedances per year
- AEP – Annual exceedance probability
- AEP (1 in x) – 1/AEP
- ARI – Average Recurrence Interval (years)

For floods rarer than 5%, the relationship between the various frequency descriptors can be estimated by the following straightforward equations.

For common events, more complex equations are required (these will also work for any frequency):

A key result is that we can’t use the simple relationship ARI = 1/AEP for frequent events. So, for example, the 50% AEP event is not the same as the 2-year ARI event.

For an ARI of 5 years, what is the AEP:

For an AEP of 50%, what is the ARI?

R functions and example calculation available as a gist.

]]>

- Its often challenging to get good calibrations for all the available historical events and there may good reasons why.

Difficulties in calibrating a model to observed flood events of different magnitude should be taken as an indication of the changing role of processes.

In many cases a significant change occurs between floods that are mostly contained within the stream channel and floods in which floodplain storage plays an important role in the routing process.

If the model has only been calibrated to in-bank floods, confidence in its ability to represent larger floods will be lower.

- Calibration needs to focus on what the model is to be used for, not just ensuring past events are well represented.

The focus of model calibration is not just to develop a model that is well calibrated to the available flood data. Application of the model to the design requirements must be the primary focus.

It is often the case that calibration floods are relatively frequent while design applications require much rarer floods. In this case, work in refining the model calibration to the frequent floods may not be justified.

Parameter values should account for the expected future design conditions, rather than an unrepresentative calibration event.

Calibration usually works with historic flood events while the design requirements are for probabilistic events. The parameters calculated for the historic events may not be applicable to the design flood events.

- On using all available data.

Even if the data is of poor quality or incomplete, it is important that the model calibration be at least consistent with the available information.

Even poor quality observations may be sufficient to apply a ‘common sense test’.

…at least ensure that model performance is consistent with minimal data [available]…

- On inconsistent data

Effort should be concentrated on resolving the source of the inconsistency rather than pursing further calibration.

- Dealing with poor calibration.

It is far more important to understand why a model may not be calibrating well at a particular location than to use unrealistic parameter values to ‘force’ the model to calibrate.

- Don’t expect your model to provide a good fit to all data.

It is extremely unlikely that your simple model is perfectly representing the complex real world well, all your data has been collected without error, or is unaffected by local factors.

- The appearance of great calibrations may mean:

The model has been overfitted to the data with unrealistic parameter values, or

Some of the data, that does not fit well, has been ignored or not presented.

- Checking adopted parameters.

Calibration events should be re-run with adopted parameters and results should show at least reasonable performance for all of the calibration events.

- Confirming model suitability for design events

Model performance, for design events, should be confirmed using Flood Frequency Analysis results, if available, or regional flood frequency information.

Book 7 also has worthwhile guidance on uncertainty analysis, model checking and reporting.

]]>- Superscripts in y-axis labels
- Probability scale on x-axis
- Labelling points on the x-axis that are different to the plotted values i.e. we are plotting the normal quantile values but labelling them as percentages
- Adding a title to the legend
- Adding labels to the legend
- Positioning the legend on the plot
- Choosing colours for the lines
- Using commas as a thousand separator.

Code is available as a gist, which also shows how to:

- Enter data using the tribble function, which is convenient for small data sets
- Change the format of data to one observation per row using the tidyr::gather function.
- Use a log scale on the y-axis
- Plot a secondary axis showing the AEP as 1 in X years
- Use the Probit transformation for the AEP values

Links for more information:

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